In 2015, as the US Open came to an end, I randomly thought it would be fun to try to guess who would be the number 1 and 2 players in men and women four years in the future. The result was a simple update post on this blog with the idea and asking readers to come up with their guesses. I was not even sure my blog would still be alive in 2019, but just in case, why not have some fun, right? Well, it turned out that it was fun, and eye-opening, indeed. Here is the wrap-up post of that initial edition posted here in 2019 and it basically acts as exhibit A for showing how hard it is to forecast the development of talent in the world of professional tennis.
In that same wrap-up post in 2019, I also asked readers and followers to guess, again, who would be number 1 and 2 in men and women four years from that date, which brings us to today. Although the number of people who sent in their forecasts more than doubled, hardly anyone in this second edition fared better than the ones in the first.
One person — @muzafferacik — astonishingly picked three out of the four names four years ahead of time! He had the women in reverse position (Swiatek as number one, Sabalenka as number two), which would have been correct during the US Open, but not as of the Monday rankings following the Open, which is the week in question for the purposes of this fun contest. He correctly had Novak DJokovic as number one on the men’s side. His only miss was Dominic Thiem as number two, which was not an unreasonable pick back in the fall of 2019.
What is more surprising is how little Swiatek’s name was mentioned in 2019 as a possible top 2 player in 2023. Outside of Muzaffer, only two other entrants — @enricomariariva and @elzorres9 — trusted Swiatek enough to include her in their guesses, both correctly putting her at number two. Enrico also had Coco Gauff at number one, not a bad pick in fairness.
One person — @k1ngkkyrgioss — guessed both number ones correctly. Several people accurately had DJokovic as the number one player but did not have any of the other three names. Zero was the number of times Carlos Alcaraz’s name came up, not a surprise considering that he was 16 years old and outside the ATP top 1000 at the time. Serena Williams and Roger Federer were each mentioned by three entrants, Nadal by 13. Karolina Pliskova who was the number two WTA player at the time was mentioned only once!
Recency bias was the big winner of the second edition as Bianca Andreescu was mentioned by a record 56 entrants as a possible number 1 or 2 WTA player today. Remember that she was the center of the tennis universe at the time, having just won the US Open title after a spectacular performance in the final vs. Serena Williams. Naomi Osaka was next with 37 mentions, followed by Dominic Thiem with 30, and everyone else below 20.
All right! Let’s move on with the third edition!
As of Monday following the US Open 2023, the top 2 players in the world in men and women are as follows: 1) Novak Djokovic – 2) Carlos Alcaraz 1) Aryna Sabalenka – 2) Iga Swiatek
And now… Who are your picks for no. 1 and 2 in men’s and women’s rankings four years from now, in 2027, at the end of the U.S. Open?
***Send me your picks by leaving a message below this blog post, or by replying to my post on Twitter*** — Deadline to send your picks: September 17 — You must specify names for all four positions to be entered, number 1 and 2 for men and women.
Please share this page on social media so we get a large pool of picks and we can have fun with it four years later. All entries will be listed below.
At the end of the U.S. Open in 2015, I posted an update in which I asked friends, followers, and people on social media to guess who would be the number 1 and 2 players in men and women in exactly four years. The results are in. Few people correctly guessed the no. 1 player in the ATP – Novak Djokovic – and one person, the no. 2 – Rafael Nadal (the only time Nadal’s name was written in!)
On the women’s side, nobody correctly picked the no. 1 player but a couple of people correctly guessed the no. 2 player – Karolina Pliskova. Many guessed Simona Halep and Madison Keys at either 1 or 2. Simona now stands at no. 6 and Madison at no. 19. Best predictions came from @bestennispicks who picked Djokovic and Federer at 1 and 2 (they are 2 and 3) and Serena Williams and Karolina Pliskova at 1 and 2 (they are 9 and 6).
Most people blew it though, to be blunt, like I did – none of the four players I picked are now in the top two, two of the four are outside the top 20!
In any case, this was fun !!! Let’s do another one. Who are your picks for no. 1 and 2 in men’s and women’s rankings in 2023, at the end of the U.S. Open?
Please share this page on social media so we get a large pool of picks and we can have fun with it four years later. All entries are listed below.
Reply with your picks to my post on Twitter or use the message space below, or send me an email: mertov (at) mertovstennisdesk (dot) com. I will collect all the picks and list them below in the next week or two.
